Wetter and windier weather likely into November

The rest of October is likely to turn more changeable, with a wetter and windier spell possible later this week, according to BBC Weather's latest monthly outlook.

This weekend and early next week

High pressure is giving many places a quiet weekend, with dry spells and light winds. There may be sunshine, though low cloud, mist and fog could be slow to clear, and sheltered inland areas could see chilly nights and a touch of frost.

Early next week, a small, slow-moving area of low pressure could approach southern England, bringing thicker cloud and spells of rain to the south. An easterly breeze may make it feel cooler under the cloud.

Later this week

From around Wednesday, Atlantic low pressure may become more influential from the north west, increasing the chance of rain and brisk winds, especially in the west and north, with some rain possibly spreading south and east.

That is a notable change from earlier forecasts, which suggested high pressure would dominate the whole week, although the timing and extent of the Atlantic breakthrough remain uncertain.

The last week of October

Confidence is low. One scenario has low pressure near Iceland or the UK bringing rain and stronger winds, especially in the west and north, with southerly winds keeping much of England and Wales relatively mild. Another has high pressure further north or west, allowing cooler northerly winds to reach the UK, particularly Scotland and Northern Ireland. A sustained cold spell is not the most likely outcome.

Early November

There is little agreement for the first full week of November. High pressure over mainland Europe could bring quieter, relatively mild weather at times, or lower pressure around Britain could bring more rain and wind with some cooler days. Temperatures are most likely to be near or slightly above average.

Mid-November

Signals become more consistent by the middle of November, when Atlantic low pressure systems may track close to Iceland or the UK, bringing more frequent rain and stronger winds and temperatures generally above average, especially in England and Wales. A drier, calmer and perhaps foggy spell under high pressure remains a reasonable alternative.

What it means for Birmingham

After one of the driest years on record, more rain would be good news for reservoirs and rivers, with the region still in drought. But a switch to wetter and windier weather also brings the usual autumn hazards: leaves on roads and railway lines, blocked drains and slippery pavements.

Monthly outlooks give a broad picture of the likely weather rather than a day-by-day forecast, so it is worth checking the latest forecast before making plans, particularly for outdoor events around Halloween and Bonfire Night.

The clocks go back an hour next Sunday, 25 October, marking the end of British Summer Time and bringing darker evenings.