Snow next week? The Met Office says not for Birmingham

Headlines warning of snow next week have been doing the rounds, but the Met Office says there is no sign of a wintry blast for Birmingham.

The talk of snow comes from maps produced from the American GFS weather model, published by the WX Charts website. They show snow falling around 16 October, with up to 4cm in places and 2cm more widely.

Where the maps show snow

Almost all of the snow on the maps falls in Scotland, mainly on high ground. The 11 areas named include Sutherland, Ross-shire and Cromartyshire, Inverness-shire, Nairnshire, Banffshire, Aberdeenshire, Angus, Perthshire, Argyllshire, and Dunbartonshire and Stirlingshire. Nowhere in England is on the list.

What the Met Office says

The Met Office has described talk of a "plunge" bringing an "autumn chill" as an exaggeration.

"This is a recognisably autumnal pattern rather than an exceptional cold spell," it said. "The overall message is therefore one of changeable autumn weather. Spells of rain, brisk winds, showers and some chilly intervals, but also drier periods."

"Dramatic nationwide snow and prolonged freezing conditions are not the central themes of the current forecast."

What the BBC says

BBC Weather said the coming week should be unsettled, before high pressure builds to make the southern half of the UK drier than the north through and beyond the middle of the month.

"Temperatures will be above or at least near average for most of the time but under clear and calm interludes some rather chilly and foggy nights are possible," it said. It expects 12 to 18 October to be "unsettled then potentially drier later", and 19 October to 1 November to be "drier than normal in many areas".

Why model maps can mislead

Weather models are computer programs that simulate the atmosphere, and they produce new runs several times a day. A single run of a single model, looked at more than a week ahead, can change completely from one run to the next. Forecasters at the Met Office compare many models, and many slightly different runs of each, before deciding how likely an outcome is. That is why a dramatic chart can appear one day and vanish the next.

Snow in Scotland in October

Snow on the Scottish mountains in October is not unusual. The highest peaks of the Cairngorms often see their first snow of the season in autumn, while snow lying in towns and cities in England in October is rare.

What to expect in Birmingham

For Birmingham, the outlook is for changeable autumn weather, with spells of rain, brisk winds and some brighter, drier days. Temperatures are expected to stay close to or a little above average for the time of year, and the clearest, calmest nights could turn chilly and foggy.

It is a good time to make sure your car's lights, wipers and tyres are in good condition before the darker, wetter months, and to keep an ice scraper and de-icer in the car for the first frosty morning.

The Met Office's forecasts and any weather warnings are available on its website and app.