October outlook: dry start with fog and chilly nights

October is likely to begin with settled weather across central and southern parts of the UK, including Birmingham, with dry days, chilly nights and morning fog, according to the Met Office's long-range forecast.

3 to 12 October

The Met Office says high pressure will probably be in place across much of central and southern UK during this period, bringing mostly dry weather. Northern areas are more likely to see occasional rain and breezier conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain above average overall, although clear skies could bring chilly nights and fog in the mornings.

13 to 27 October

The second half of the month is described as quite an uncertain period. Rain is most likely in western and southern areas, and temperatures are expected to stay broadly above average overall.

How reliable are long-range forecasts?

The Met Office explains that forecasts beyond about five days cannot give reliable local detail, because small developments over the Atlantic can have big effects on UK weather several days later. Long-range forecasts describe the most likely pattern for the country as a whole, so it is worth checking the detailed forecast closer to the time.

Fog and driving

Fog can make driving dangerous, especially on motorways. In thick fog, drivers should slow down, use dipped headlights and fog lights when visibility is seriously reduced, and switch fog lights off again when it clears.

Good news for outdoor events

A settled start to October would be welcome news for outdoor events in the city, and for anyone planning to enjoy the autumn colours in Birmingham's parks.

Half term

Schools in Birmingham break up for October half term later in the month, and families planning days out should keep an eye on the forecast as the uncertain second half of the month approaches.