Why the UK keeps breaking temperature records

This year has brought the UK's hottest summer on record and one of its warmest Septembers. Here is what the figures show, and why scientists say records are being broken more often.

A record summer

The UK's average temperature this summer was 16.5C, breaking the previous record of 16.1C, which was set only last year. England, Wales and Northern Ireland all set summer records.

The highest temperature of the summer was 38.2C, recorded at Hartpury College in Gloucestershire on 13 August. During the summer, 54 weather stations broke their all-time records for the highest daily maximum temperature.

It was also dry and sunny. The UK had 77 per cent of its average summer rainfall, England had its driest July on record, and the summer was the sixth sunniest on record.

A warm September

September continued the trend. It was the joint-fourth warmest September on record for the UK, and the third warmest for England, with temperatures reaching 28.1C on 29 September.

The role of climate change

Scientists at the Met Office carried out a rapid attribution study, which compares the chance of an event happening in today's climate with the chance in a world without human influence. They found that the record-breaking summer had been made around 130 times more likely because of human-induced climate change.

Dr Mark McCarthy, of the Met Office, said: "In our current climate, which is changing because of the effect of burning of fossil fuels, we should now expect this to be roughly a 1 in 9 year event."

Dr Amy Doherty, a Met Office climate scientist, said: "These records are now breaking with increasing frequency, reflecting the influence of human-induced climate change."

What it means for Birmingham

Hotter summers have real effects in cities. Buildings and roads absorb heat during the day and release it at night, making urban areas hotter than the countryside around them. Older people, babies and people with heart and lung conditions are at greatest risk during heatwaves.

Birmingham's tree-planting work and plans for more green spaces are partly aimed at keeping neighbourhoods cooler. Trees provide shade and cool the air around them.

Drought

The hot, dry summer has left much of England in drought, including the area around Birmingham, with reservoir levels well below normal. The Environment Agency says it will take months of significant and sustained wet weather for water resources to recover.

Wetter winters too

Climate change is not just about heat. Scientists expect UK winters to become wetter on average, with more intense rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding. That is why flood defence schemes, such as those planned on the River Rea and its tributaries in south Birmingham, are increasingly important.

What can be done

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is the only way to slow climate change. Birmingham City Council has set a target of net zero carbon by 2030, or as soon as possible afterwards. At the same time, cities are adapting to the changes already happening, from planting trees and creating shade to improving drainage and protecting vulnerable people during heatwaves.

How attribution works

Attribution studies use climate models to simulate the weather many thousands of times, once in a world like today's and once in a world without the warming caused by people. Comparing how often an event like this summer happens in each set of simulations lets scientists estimate how much more likely climate change has made it.