First named storm of the autumn possible later this week

The UK could see its first named storm of the autumn later this week, as forecasts show a deep area of low pressure crossing the country on Friday.

A strengthening jet stream, triggered by temperature contrasts across North America, is expected to bring more turbulent weather. All areas will see rain at times, including those currently in drought, although how much will depend on the exact track of the low.

A frosty weekend

All four UK nations recorded their lowest temperatures of the autumn so far over the weekend. Parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland fell to minus 4C on Sunday morning, northern England dropped to minus 2C, and Wales had its first air frost of the season.

Despite that, October has continued this year's warm trend, with mean temperatures 1C to 3C above normal so far.

The week ahead

• Monday: overnight rain in England and Wales will mostly die out and skies will brighten.
• Tuesday: cloudy, with rain developing again in England, Wales and Scotland.
• Wednesday: bands of rain moving across the UK.
• Friday: a deep low could cross the UK, bringing heavy rain and gales or severe gales.

Where the worst winds could be

Most computer models take the centre of the low across the south of the UK, which would put the highest risk of disruptive winds over the southernmost parts of England and Wales, and possibly some eastern coastal counties later on Friday. Some models show a more northerly track, which would spread gales and disruption more widely. It is possible the low could pass further south, bringing bigger impacts to France.

The forecast could change, so it is important to keep an eye on any Met Office weather warnings.

Storm Austen?

If the Met Office or Met Eireann expect significant impacts, they would issue amber or higher warnings, and the storm would be named Austen, the first name on this season's list. If France's weather service named it first, it would be called Bruna.

What it could mean for Birmingham

Birmingham is in the middle of the country, so the track of the low will decide whether the city sees mainly heavy rain or strong winds as well. After a very dry autumn, the rain would be welcome for reservoirs, but heavy rain on dry ground can run off quickly and cause surface water flooding.

Before Friday, it is worth clearing leaves from gutters and drains, securing bins, garden furniture and trampolines, and checking travel plans nearer the time. Rail and road disruption is common when the first autumn storm arrives, as leaves and branches come down.