How cold should October be in Birmingham?

If it feels too warm for October, you are not imagining it. Temperatures in and around Birmingham were expected to reach around 20C on Tuesday, well above what is normal for the time of year.

The day began with patches of mist and fog in parts of the area, with the Met Office forecasting light, scattered showers and variable winds later.

What is normal for October?

Meteorologists count autumn as September, October and November, so the season is already almost a third of the way through.

• The average daytime high in October is around 14C, with warmer, sunnier days early in the month occasionally reaching 16C to 18C.
• The average night-time low is around 7C to 8C.
• As November approaches, nights more often fall to around 4C, occasionally bringing the first frost to rural areas and cold spots.

A warm start to autumn

Autumn has begun warmer than usual. The Met Office says September was the joint-fourth warmest on record for the UK, with a mean temperature of 14.6C, which is 1.6C above the long-term average.

The forecast for this week

The Met Office expects a few showers this evening, becoming cloudier overnight, with outbreaks of rain that become more persistent by dawn.

• Wednesday: a wet morning with plenty of cloud, brightening up in the afternoon, with a few light showers possible further west. Feeling cooler in a north-westerly breeze.
• Thursday: a dry, sunny but chilly start, before cloud and rain move in overnight.
• Friday: feeling milder, with rain clearing to showers.
• Saturday: showers continuing, with sunny intervals.

The rest of the month

The Met Office's long-range forecast for 10 to 19 October suggests changeable weather, with "occasional bands of rain and strong winds, but interspersed with brighter and more showery conditions". Rain is expected to be heaviest over hills in the west and north-west, and temperatures are likely to be a little above average overall.

From 20 October to 3 November, the changeable pattern is expected to continue, with "showers or longer spells of rain at times", the wettest and windiest weather in the west and north-west, and temperatures still slightly above average.

Why autumn is warming

The Met Office says the UK's climate is warming, and that warm months are becoming more frequent across all seasons, not only summer. A warm September does not rule out cold snaps later in autumn, but the balance has shifted, and the first frosts in towns and cities now tend to come later than they did a few decades ago.

Mist and fog

Calm, clear autumn nights after warm days are ideal for mist and fog, as moist air cools close to the ground. Drivers should use dipped headlights when visibility is poor, leave more space to the car in front and use fog lights only when visibility falls below 100 metres, switching them off again when it improves.

Staying up to date

The Met Office updates its forecasts several times a day, and detailed forecasts for Birmingham are available on its website and app.