Birmingham week ahead: warm start, then rain and a cooler feel

Birmingham starts the week with temperatures of around 21C, unusually mild for early October, but rain on Wednesday will bring a much cooler feel, according to the Met Office.

The forecast for Birmingham

• Monday: mostly cloudy, with a top temperature of 21C and a low of 13C. A small chance of rain later in the day, with gusts of up to 24 miles per hour.
• Tuesday: sunny intervals, 20C, with light winds and a 30 per cent chance of rain.
• Wednesday: rain, heaviest in the morning, with a top temperature of just 13C and gusts of up to 25 miles per hour.
• Thursday: brighter, with sunny intervals and a high of 14C.
• Friday: cloudier and windier, with gusts of up to 29 miles per hour, a chance of rain early on and a high of 18C.
• Saturday: sunny intervals and a cooler 13C.

Across the UK

Monday began with mist and fog patches in the south, which cleared to leave a dry day with warm sunny spells. The north was cloudier and windier, with outbreaks of rain and drizzle, and it was gradually turning cooler in Scotland.

The Met Office expects heavy rainfall in the south east on Wednesday, with temperatures falling across the UK. Thursday should be dry and bright for most, before heavy rain moves east on Friday.

The rest of October

The Met Office's long-range forecast for 10 October to 2 November suggests changeable weather, with wet and showery spells, particularly over hills in the west. Southern and eastern parts of the UK are expected to be drier, and temperatures are likely to be slightly above average overall.

Half term

Birmingham schools break up for the October half term on Friday 23 October, returning on Monday 2 November. Families planning days out should keep an eye on the forecast, as the long-range outlook suggests a mix of weather.

The clocks go back

The clocks go back an hour at 2am on Sunday 25 October, bringing lighter mornings but darker evenings. Road safety groups urge drivers to take extra care around children, cyclists and people walking after dark.

Drought update

Despite recent rain, the Environment Agency area that includes Birmingham remains in drought. England had only 65 per cent of its usual rainfall in September, and reservoir storage across England was 55 per cent at the start of October. More rain is needed over the autumn and winter for water supplies to recover.

Wrap up

The drop in temperature from 21C on Monday to 13C on Wednesday will be noticeable. It is a good time to check that heating is working and that older relatives and neighbours are prepared for colder weather as autumn sets in.

Stay informed

The Met Office updates its forecasts several times a day. Detailed forecasts for Birmingham and any weather warnings are available on its website and app.

Why such a big drop?

The warm start to the week comes from mild air drawn in from the south west. When a weather front moves through on Wednesday, it will bring rain and replace the mild air with cooler air from the north west, which is why the top temperature is forecast to fall by around eight degrees in two days. Changes like this are typical of autumn, when the battle between warm and cold air masses becomes more frequent.

Heating on?

The NHS advises keeping rooms you use regularly at 18C or above, especially for older people and those with health conditions. Energy bills rose by 4 per cent on 1 October, and households struggling to pay can ask their supplier about help, and check whether they qualify for the Warm Home Discount.