Birmingham week ahead: mild and wet, then cooler by Friday

Birmingham starts the week with unusually mild but wet and windy weather, before it turns cooler and brighter towards the weekend, according to the Met Office.

Today

After a chilly start, Sunday should be settled, with sunny spells and a light breeze, and a top temperature of around 15C. Rain is expected to arrive overnight.

The forecast for Birmingham

• Monday: overcast, with spells of rain through the day, but mild, with a top temperature of 18C. A mild night follows.
• Tuesday: a morning of rain and strong winds, becoming much brighter later. Around 18C.
• Wednesday: bright and breezy, around 17C.
• Thursday: around 18C, with a cooler night of around 8C.
• Friday: noticeably cooler, around 13C, with a low of 6C.
• Saturday: around 12C, with a low of 6C.

Across the UK

The Met Office says a weather front will spread from west to east on Monday, bringing thicker cloud and rain. A deepening area of low pressure to the north-west, driven by a strong jet stream, will bring gales to coasts and high ground in the north and west on Monday night, although forecasters do not currently expect to need severe weather warnings.

Tuesday looks unsettled and windy, but unusually mild for October, especially in the east and south-east of England, where temperatures could reach the low 20s Celsius before cooler air returns.

Half term and the clocks

Birmingham schools break up for the October half term on Friday 23 October. The clocks go back an hour at 2am on Sunday 25 October, bringing lighter mornings but darker evenings, and road safety groups urge drivers to take extra care around children, cyclists and people walking after dark.

Still in drought

Despite the rain, the Environment Agency says the area that includes Birmingham remains in drought, and reservoir storage across England is well below normal for the time of year. The agency says sustained wet weather over the autumn and winter is needed before water supplies recover, and asks people to keep using water wisely.

Windy weather tips

• Secure garden furniture, trampolines and bins before Monday night.
• Clear leaves from gutters and drains so rain can get away.
• Take care on roads: falling leaves and branches, and standing water, can make driving more hazardous.

Why the swing in temperature?

The mild start to the week comes from warm air drawn up from the south-west ahead of the weather fronts. Once the fronts have passed, the wind turns to come from the north-west, bringing cooler, fresher air. That is why top temperatures are forecast to fall by around five or six degrees between Thursday and Friday.

Stay informed

The Met Office updates its forecasts several times a day, and detailed forecasts for Birmingham, along with any weather warnings, are on its website and app.