Eritrea cuts all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia

Eritrea has cut all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, hours after the Ethiopian government closed its embassy in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, and expelled ten Eritrean diplomats from Addis Ababa.

The break is the most serious rupture between the two Horn of Africa neighbours since they made peace in 2018, and it comes as fighting has resumed in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region.

What Ethiopia said

Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Eritrea of "direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence". It declared ten Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, saying they had been involved in activities that posed "a direct threat to Ethiopia's national security", and gave them 48 hours to leave the country.

Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of financing the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the party that controls Tigray and which has joined an armed opposition alliance against the federal government. Ethiopia's military leadership has also accused Sudan and Egypt of backing the rebels. On the same day, an Egyptian diplomat was declared persona non grata and ordered to leave Ethiopia within 48 hours.

Eritrea's response

Eritrea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the country had "no option but to reciprocate in kind and sever all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia with all the negative corollaries that this entails". Eritrea denies supporting the rebels and in turn accuses Ethiopia of having designs on its coastline.

From war to peace and back

Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a devastating border war between 1998 and 2000, which killed tens of thousands of people. The two countries remained in a tense stand-off for almost two decades until 2018, when Ethiopia's new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, moved to make peace. The deal helped Abiy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

During Ethiopia's civil war in Tigray from 2020 to 2022, Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the Tigray People's Liberation Front. The war killed hundreds of thousands of people before a peace agreement was signed in 2022.

The question of the sea

Relations have worsened as Abiy has pushed for landlocked Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous country, to gain direct access to the sea. Ethiopia lost its coastline when Eritrea became independent in 1993. Officials in Asmara have interpreted Abiy's statements about Ethiopia's right to a port as a threat to Eritrean territory.

Fears of a wider war

Analysts have warned that the conflict could draw in neighbouring countries. Laura Hammond, of SOAS University of London, said: "The risks that conflict will spread to other countries, or that neighbours in the region will be brought into the present conflict are already playing out."

The journalist and analyst Martin Plaut said the situation was "extremely tense and it would only require a spark to ignite a conflagration" that could engulf both countries and neighbouring Sudan.

Egypt and Ethiopia have also been at odds for years over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which Cairo sees as a threat to its water supply. Sudan, itself at war, and Ethiopia have accused each other of harbouring and arming opposition fighters.

What happens next

Breaking diplomatic ties does not mean war, but it removes one of the main channels through which the two governments could talk. The African Union, which has its headquarters in Addis Ababa, and other international partners are likely to press both sides to avoid further escalation.

For the people of Tigray, many of whom are still recovering from the last war, the return of fighting has raised fears of another humanitarian crisis.