Drone attacks make the Black Sea the deadliest sea for shipping

A wave of drone attacks on merchant ships has turned the Black Sea into the world's most dangerous waters for sailors, driving up insurance costs and threatening one of the world's most important routes for grain.

Six ships were struck in ten days by suspected Russian air and sea drones. The Turkish-owned Alfa Watan sank after an attack in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone on 6 October, and there was no sign of its crew of ten. Eleven sailors died when the HS Dignity was hit six days later. On Thursday two chemical tankers, the Wine Trader and the Yara J, were left burning in Romanian waters, and seven more sailors are missing.

"The deadliest sea"

More sailors have been lost in the Black Sea in a week and a half than US service members killed in the entire Iran war. Most of the more than 60 seafarers killed there since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have died in the past year.

"It is currently, unfortunately, the deadliest sea when it comes to the number of casualties of sailors in the last months," said Romania's foreign minister, Oana Toiu.

Targeting Ukraine's exports

Tomas Alexa, a senior analyst at the maritime risk firm Ambrey, said the pace of attacks had risen sharply since July, with Russian forces thought responsible for about 80%. "The Russian intent is clear, which is to degrade the export of Ukrainian grain and agricultural products," he said.

Insurance rates have soared, the number of ships calling at Ukrainian ports has fallen steeply, and crews are increasingly reluctant to sail anywhere in the region. In September the London insurance market's Joint War Committee extended its high-risk area to cover the whole Black Sea, apart from the territorial waters of Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia.

A risk to food prices

Ukraine, Russia and Romania are all major grain exporters, and the attacks have revived fears of a global food crisis. When Russia's invasion first blocked Ukrainian ports in 2022, world wheat and cooking oil prices jumped, feeding into higher food prices in British supermarkets.

A senior British military adviser, Colonel Joby Rimmer, told the OSCE that each attack "drives up insurance costs and restricts the flow of food to those who depend on it".

Pressure on Nato

The attacks are pressing ever closer to Nato's borders. Bulgaria's prime minister, Rumen Radev, called them "absolutely unacceptable", and Nato's secretary general, Mark Rutte, has met Bulgarian and Romanian leaders to discuss security in the region. There is speculation that the countries affected could invoke Article 4 of the Nato treaty, which triggers formal consultations.

A wider shipping crisis

The Black Sea attacks add to disruption in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. "Shipping has become a deliberate instrument of geopolitical leverage," said Damien Chevallier, director of maritime safety at the IMO, the United Nations shipping agency. Higher shipping and insurance costs tend to be passed on in the prices of goods around the world.